The Premier League Sack Race

So, we are almost through day one of the 2012/13 season and it has got me thinking - who is for the chop first???  There are always 2/3 obvious contenders and inevitably, throughout the season, they are axed.  There are always surprises, too.

This year is more difficult than ever though.

You have a whole host of mid-table managers that, on paper and in terms of team performance, could well be amazing managers with bright futures.  You have those who may be out of their depth a little too soon (AVB again! Rodgers, Di Matteo) and then the newcomers to the prem (Laudrup/Swansea, McDermott/Reading, Adkins/Southampton).  Then 'top ten potentials' (Pardew/Newcastle, Moyes/Everton, Pulis/Stoke). You then have the ever-uncertain 'bottom half' players (Hughes/QPR, Big Sam/West Ham, O'Neill/Sunderland, Clarke/West Brom, Hughton/Norwich, Jol/Fulham, Martinez/Wigan, Lambert/Aston Villa) and finally your 'dead-certs' for safety (Ferguson, Mancini, Wenger).

How do you decipher this lot!?!

Let's start by ruling out Fergie, Wenger, Mancini.  Leaving 17.  Add to that Pulis, who has achieved miracles at Stoke, and Moyes at Everton - the third longest serving manager in the Premier League and another who has performed miracles with zero cash for Kenwright.  Leaving 15.  I'll chuck Pardew into the 'safe' list too - although he may be hard pushed to achieve what he did last year, I'd be shocked if he went this year.

After these 6, it is difficult to say that any of the other 14 are guaranteed to be safe this season.  A combination of foreign owners, high/unrealistic expectations and fixture order means that any one of these 14 could be for the chop sooner than expected.

I'd suggest that O'Neill is still rebuilding Sunderland and will get time whilst Big Sam, having brought West Ham back to the Prem, should be safe.  Adkins, with back-to-back promotions for Southampton also deserves his contract, which doesn't run out for a few years and also should be safe.  Sentiment and history become irrelevant for the remaining 11 in my opinion.

Here they are:

1. AVB - Spurs
2. Rodgers - Liverpool
3. Di  Matteo - Chelsea
4. Laudrup - Swansea
5. McDermott - Reading
6. Hughes - QPR
7. Clarke - West Brom
8. Hughton - Norwich
9. Jol - Fulham
10. Martinez - Wigan
11. Lambert - Villa

AVB 

Will struggle with a Spurs side in decline.  Modric is off.  They have one striker, a suspect back four and without Bale, look extremely sterile with the ball.  Yesterday on the counter they looked strong, but so would any team if they had Lennon.  Won't be an easy season for him and will be under pressure to achieve top 4 again I'm sure. My verdict:  Safe this season but won't last long or achieve CL football with Spurs.

Rodgers

He won't achieve anywhere near what the owners demand.  It will take a generation to build his style of football through the football club - and that starts with the youth development.  You cannot rock up with a philosophy and expect 20-30 years olds to adapt to it, when they've been playing a different way since being 5 years old.  My verdict: Same as AVB, will be safe this season, will never reach the CL with Liverpool and 3 years tops in charge at LFC.

Di Matteo

Widely reported to be on his way out over summer with some high profile replacements lined up at Chelsea. Apparently none of those were immediately available, especially Pep Guardiola of Barca.  Him remaining in his post is a token gesture and whilst I do not think he'll be sacked after CL success, he won't be here next year.  My verdict: Safe this season.

Laudrup

I think Laudrup will surprise a few people.  His managerial track record isn't amazing on paper - a Danish league title with Brondby, a few runners-up efforts in league and cup.  Scraped relegation with Mallorca and a Cope Del Rey final.  Sacked from Spartak Moscow too after just 14 games.  Doomed you might think.  But the Copa Del Rey final was as manager of Getafe - a weak team in La Liga. Mallorca sold all of their prized assets and then some, with Laudrup performing miracles in keeping them up. All the while, wherever he has gone, he has developed a style of play that you want to watch.  Suits the Swansea of last season and should continue Rodgers' efforts.  My verdict:  Safe and potential top ten finish.

McDermott

One that I've heard being touted as someone who will definitely go.  I'm not so sure.  He's been with the Royals for about 13 years as scout/coach/manager.  And won LMA Manager of the Year last year for his efforts too.  My verdict: Safe this year, although might get relegated with a very weak team.

Hughes

A funny one.  Did a great job with Blackburn before moving to Man City in an obvious 'promotion' as such.  The change of ownership meant he was doomed there, maybe incorrectly sacked, but who knows.  The evolution there means many good managers/players have been axed prematurely perhaps. He took a solid post at Fulham - strong team, backed well, European contenders every year, then it went wrong for me.  After leading Fulham into Europe, he chose not to continue and have a crack at Europe as he wanted to be at a 'bigger club'.  Well, QPR certainly was not that.  For all their riches, and purchases this summer, QPR look a weak team, with an unstable/unproven owner who knows nothing about football.  And for that reason, my verdict:  Hughes will be sacked by Christmas.

Clarke

I'm pleased he has taken on a number one job as its been widely reported for years that this guy is special.  Playing number two to an unproven Zola at West Ham was a poor decision.  As was joining the archaic setup of Kenny Dalglish.  Maybe now we will see what he is capable of.  My verdict: Safe and will not be involved in relegation scrap.

Hughton 

Hmmmmmmm, a tough one.  I think Hughton is a strong manager. He was unfairly dismissed at Newcastle, and we responsible there for bringing in Ben Arfa, Sol Campbell, Danny Simpson and Tiote (3 of which remain to be first teamers and key players).  And bringing through Andy Carroll, too.  He did a great job with Birmingham - taking them to 4th in the Championship and qualifying for the group stages of the Europa League (after Arsenal handed them victory in the seasons Carling Cup the previous year). I'm just not sure Norwich are the right 'match'.  I think he could be a top, top manager and this is his biggest test.  But I can't see that squad doing him justice. My verdict: Safe this year, relegation battle though and this may prove to hinder his career development.

Jol

I like Jol.  Pretty much started Spurs' return to acceptable standards in the Prem and has always been one to over achieve. I feel he will at Fulham also and a top ten position beckons for them.  My verdict: safe and potential Europa qualification

Martinez

Maybe one season too many for this guy.  Has the hearts of the fans and DW. Scrapes through every year but plays some awesome football at times.  You wonder whether he should be at a bigger club, but then he ends up battling to avoid relegation every year. My verdict:  Safe, but won't be there next season

Lambert

After successive promotions with Norwich and keeping them in the Prem in some style, you may think that Lambert deserves his place.  And he does, for now.  I just can't see how he will take Villa forward.  He'll come unstuck quickly and with the yank owners at Villa, you can be sure of impatience.  My verdict: Sacked before end of the season.

In order then:

Dead certs:

Hughes by Christmas

Lambert by season’s end (replaced with someone to 'save from relegation').

Potentials/long shots:

Almost everyone else!